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Forum:2009 Pacific hurricane season
September 15E.LINDA 96. E Invest NHC's has this at high risk. It has an EYE. Will bypass TD stage? :Lastes TWO says: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1025 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ::Update: A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED 1025 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ...AND IT APPEARS THAT A CENTER MAY BE FORMING CLOSER TO DEEP CONVECTION. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF OF ORGANIZATION AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. COMPUTER MODELS ALSO SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. TCFA. Tropical Depression 15E Up on NHC. Not forecast to do much, just get a name and spin some fish around. --Patteroast 10:09, September 7, 2009 (UTC) :Heading very dry air. 17:08, September 7, 2009 (UTC) I predict it to peak at 40 mph. Tropical Storm Linda 60 mph, 997 mb. Aol:500 West of the Panama/El Salvador Border GFDL predicts TD. Belive it or not, a small area of this is SOUTH of the monsoon trough. Aol:420 Miles east Of Colima Labor day is hurricane day! Flare up in convection! 16E.MARTY Aol: Just offshore Mexico Convection stable for several hours, but it is on the increasing trend. 97E.Invest Banding EYE forming!!! Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Here comes some convection Tropical Storm Marty Upgraded. Should be short-lived. --Patteroast 16:39, September 16, 2009 (UTC) :Going poof. Down to TD, next advisory could probably be the last. --Patteroast 16:21, September 19, 2009 (UTC) 98E.INVEST High risk from NHC, south of the tip of Baja. They seem to expect it to be a TD any time, now. --Patteroast 16:19, September 19, 2009 (UTC) Poof. 17E.NORA Tropical Storm Nora Tropical Storm Nora's formed, formerly 99E.INVEST and TD17E. More of the same, not predicted to do much of anything. --Patteroast 11:51, September 23, 2009 (UTC) :GFDL predicts moderate Cat 2, HWRIF predicts strong Cat 1. Poof. October 18E.OLAF Tropical Depression Eighteen-E You know the routine. Formed, might become a storm, will be short-lived and won't affect land. --Patteroast 18:23, October 1, 2009 (UTC) Tropical Storm Olaf Upgraded. --Patteroast 21:13, October 1, 2009 (UTC) :Hm. I may have been off on the part about not affecting land. Looking like it's going to hit Baja, although probably only as a remnant low. --Patteroast 06:27, October 3, 2009 (UTC) ::Looks like it is becoming ET as it gets absorbed into a front. 19E.PACTRICA 92E.INVEST Medium risk on NHC. "ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS." --Patteroast 20:56, October 9, 2009 (UTC) :May affect land too, from the tropical weather discussion: AS FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL CENTER STALLING THROUGH TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT...THEN SHIFTING TO THE N AND NE LATE SAT AND SUN AS ANOTHER MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE AREA. --Hurricane Diana 21:12, October 9, 2009 (UTC) At the same time some models take 92E onshore in Mexico. :THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18N106W...OR ABOUT 120 NM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES. THE LOW HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SOME BANDING FEATURES NOTED IN THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECOMAN THROUGH MANZANILLO TO NEAR CABO CORRIENTES. I do want to add that it's set as a 1009 mb low in the 1800 UTC surface analysis and shown as strengthening to 1008 in the next 24 hours while moving northwest. We may have something here. --Hurricane Diana 00:16, October 10, 2009 (UTC) ::High risk now. :::TCFA is up on JTWC, next TWO should be out any minute. --Hurricane Diana 17:26, October 10, 2009 (UTC) ::::Still red, says that a tropical depression could form today or tonight. --Hurricane Diana 17:53, October 10, 2009 (UTC) TD 19-E Upgraded. TS Patrica Upgraded. :Interesting, the Forecast track has this being a min-Jimena and conditions remain favorable for intensification. Anyone think Cat 2 other than me? ::Looking quite pathetic at the moment, they may be too nice giving it 50 mph and they say that they might be generous... Tropical Storm warnings up though. --Hurricane Diana 23:04, October 13, 2009 (UTC) :::Long dead. 20E.RICK Forum:2009 Pacific Hurricane season/Rick 03C.NEKI Forum:2009 Pacific hurricane season/Neki 97C.INVEST New invest on NRL, corresponds to a low risk AoI on CPHC which is nearing the date line. "Development of a tropical cyclone within this area, if any, would be slow to occur..." --Patteroast 20:53, October 26, 2009 (UTC) :Yeah, that poofed several days ago. --Patteroast 01:11, November 1, 2009 (UTC) November 96E.INVEST Interesting little blob across Central America from Ida... was looking like there might be some interaction, but they seem to be more separate now. Low risk on NHC. --Patteroast 23:02, November 4, 2009 (UTC) :Poof. ::Not anymore. Retirement at glance Andres 5%-Minor damage, usually late for first named storm, though I do not know why this on the list in the first place. Blanca 2% Not a dud, but no damage. Carlos 3% A rare way of weaken, small, low-latitude, but no damage. Dolores 0% Dud Lana 2% Similar to Blanca Enrique 1% Similar to Dolores Felicia 31% Only minor to moderate damage in Hawaii but was worse than Fefa which got itself retired. Guillermo 4% Dud, but rare path. Hilda 0% Dud Ignacio 0% Dud Jimena 97% Whoa, Whoa, what happened here? Severe Damage in Baja, third worst hurricane in the region not consirding since it gets hit twice a yer theses days. Dont forget that it became a hurricane Faster than Humby, yes Humby. Kevin 1% Dud Linda 1% Dud Marty 1% Dud Nora 0% Dud Olaf 4% Not enough impact. :Hm. Jimena has to get retired, I'd be completely shocked if it wasn't. Felicia I don't see retiring, same for Andres. The rest really aren't worthy of retiring at all, though remembering 1997, which used this list, I wonder why a couple weren't retired earlier (Mainly Linda, no impact but strongest in the basin since they started routine tracking, and Nora, just for the hitting northern Baja as a hurricane and being a tropical storm well into Arizona/California). This year's versions didn't do anything though. --Hurricane Diana 02:02, October 10, 2009 (UTC) ::Honestly, considering how rarely EPac names get retired, I'd put Jimena at maybe 50-50 and everything else at nil. Also, isn't it the idea to not retire hurricanes if they have no impact? :P--Patteroast 10:49, October 10, 2009 (UTC) ::Jimena had a better chance than Norbert. Jimena tied or set many records, Norbert did not. Jimena was much stronger, the strongest the Western Hemisphere has even seen since September 2007. :::It's true that storms rarely get retired, but storms also don't have a huge impact like Jimena too often in the EPac. But I still stand by my thought that the strongest hurricane ever in the basin, 1997 Linda, should have been retired for that record alone, but I'm not the one to decide these things, just my opinion. (Oops, forgot to sign in, that IP was me >>) --Hurricane Diana 17:21, October 10, 2009 (UTC) :::Their an even more storm that should have been retired. Norbert 08 (Happy Anniversary), Liza 76, Kathleen 76, Nora 97, Paul 82. i think the WMO hesitates. Hopefully, the WMO will retire Jimena assuming that Felecia does not get retired. ::I could see Jimena being retired, but because Pacific retirements are random, I can't say for sure. By the way, TD 20E formed just a few hours ago, and forecast says cat. 4, up to 140 mph winds, and worse, possible recurvature towards Mexico next week! 23:06, October 15, 2009 (UTC) :::Historically, the bar for retirement in the Eastern Pacific has been pretty low, so I wouldn't rule it out, but 3 dead and $60 million in damage is hardly what I'd call severe. Definately significant and extensive, but not severe. I'd give it maybe a 50-60% chance, and that's if it even gets requested. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury'']] 05:36, October 18, 2009 (UTC) ::::What are Ricks chances of retirement? High? :::Sky, It may not look like a lot, but Alma was retired last year, so it's not impossible for Jimena to join the list. Rick hasn't hit land, so we aren't sure what's in store for us with him. 20:00, October 18, 2009 (UTC) ::::I think Rick and Jimena will be retired. Memories/Season Overview Although, we do not usually do this but since this since was a mini-05. It would be nice to see what some peoples favorite part of the season. (You many include the Atlantic, BTW). Mines was last night when Rick gained winds of 180 mph. :We've had interesting storms this year, Rick is definitely up there, but I'm going to go a little off the beaten path, at least somewhat, and go out to the WPac early this month, with Typhoon Parma. It wasn't the early strength that puts it here, it was the path that resulted from interaction with Typhoon Melor that caused its northwest movement to reverse, heading southeast to the Philippines for the second time. Then it moved slowly east, eventually heading back west, and the country was hit a third time. After over a week of erratic motion, it finally moved west and became a tropical depression just before moving inland over Vietnam and dissipating. It lasted 17 days and the track map looked like it was drawn by a five-year-old. --Hurricane Diana 16:36, October 18, 2009 (UTC) ::As for the EPac, I'd say the equivalent of 2005 would be 1992. Nearly same number of storms (although no category 5s). Favorite storm globally this season (so far... it's not over yet, as the recent category 5 shows!)... I think I'll go with Grace. Vince 2.0, and no horrible disasters attached. Guilt-free oohing and aahing at a weird storm. :) --Patteroast 19:08, October 19, 2009 (UTC) :::Now I feel bad for picking Parma because it killed people, lol. Though it did give me an excuse to teach my kids how to make hurricane tracks when I actually have kids. --Hurricane Diana 20:57, October 19, 2009 (UTC)